Topic 11- Probabilities

In this topic we will be concerned with reasoning that involves numerical probabilities. Consider the following very simple question: if the probability that Jones will go through a given door is 50% and the probability that Wong will go through the same door is 50%, what is the probability that both will go through that door? Though reasoning with probabilities is quite common, we will find that it is something we do not necessarily do well.
We will go on to look at Bayes' Theorem, one of the ways in which we can take account of new evidence.
 
 

Section 1: Probabilities

  • Concepts of Probability

    • Here we look briefly at three significant concepts of probability. (1) That of probability as mathematical odds. (2) That of probability as relative frequency. (3) That of probability as credibility.

  • The Primary System

    • Here we introduce the basic rules that are utilized to compute probabilities.

    Bayes' Theorem

  • The Theorem

    • Bayes' Theorem represents one of the primary ways in which we take account of new evidence. It spells out the relation be p given q and q given p.

    Quizzes

    Covering Section 1

  • Quiz 1

    • Covering Section 2

  • Quiz 2

    • Comprehensive

  • Quiz 3