In this topic we will be primarily concerned with a kind of argument that we
will speak of as inductive generalization. This kind of argument is very
familiar to us from, for example, reports of the results of polls. We are
inundated with reports, based upon samples, of the popularity of our
governments, our politicians, and public policies. For good or ill, decisions
that concern us are often based upon such reports. We shall also briefly
consider arguments concerned with averages.
However, we should recognize that the kind of argument with which we are now
concerned is not restricted to contexts such as political polling. Inductive
generalization is common in scientific research and in ordinary life. For
example, it is of concern to commercial fisherman and to those who set limits
upon their catches to know how many fish there are and whether the fish are
mature enough to reproduce. We are not in a position to examine each and every
portion of the ocean, so what we do is to draw conclusions based upon samples.
In the case of fisheries this may involve netting at particular points. Based
on the results of our sampling, we may conclude that there is an abundance of
fish or that they are scarce. The reliability of our conclusions is, of course,
important, as people's livelihoods depend upon policy decisions based on those
conclusions. Again, how many people are hiv-positive? Here as well, because of
both cost and concern for individual rights, we are not in a position to
examine each and every person in our society. So again we draw conclusions
based upon samples of the total population. The conclusions we draw may well
affect the direction of our social policies, consequently they should be well
founded.
Do not think that the situations in which we use inductive generalization need
be ones that are socially significant. As I look at my watch I realize it is
time for my bus to come. It will take me three minutes to walk to my bus stop,
but I walk out anyway. I have taken this bus many times before, and I know that
it is usually late. This knowledge is, as in the preceding cases, based upon a
sample.
Section 1-Inductive GeneralizationHere we study inductive generalization- one of the most frequently used forms of argument. Section 3- Standard DeviationHere we introduce standard deviations and variance. We will as well provide a more sophisticated account of margins of error and levels of confidence. |
Section 2- Averages and ArgumentsAmong the statistics with which we are inundated with are those related to averages. Here we study some of the main concepts of an average, for example that of a mode, median and mean. We will note that we must proceed with exteme care when we appeal to averages in the course of argumentation. |
Covering Section 1 |
Covering Section 2 |
Covering Section 3 |