Topic 13- Hypotheses

We are often interested in finding out why what happens has happened, in finding an explanation or in finding the cause or causes of certain phenomena. We cannot hope to provide a method or methods that will always ensure that we can answer the questions that we have, but we can investigate some of the techniques that we use. As we shall see, we typically put forward and investigate hypotheses, proposed explanations or proposed identifications of causal factors.
 
 

Section 1: Mill's Method

  • Review Mill's methods

    • Here we introduced some of Mill's methods, focussing on the method of agreement, the method of difference and the joint method. The method of concomitant variation was mention, but it is in effect covered by our discussion of correlations and studies.

    Section 2: Correlations and Studies

  • Review Correlations, Strength and Causality

    • In Section 2 we turn to a discussion of correlations and studies. While the presence of a correlation does not establish that there is any causal relation between the correlated phenomena, it is often the case that when we find correlations we investigate further to see if there is indeed a causal relation. But in other cases we are simply interested in whether there is a correlation and, if there is, how strong it is.
    There are several points to keep in mind regarding the relation between correlations and causes. Of course the primary one is that the existence of a correlation does not establish any causal relation. One of the most common mistake that people make when concerned with this sort of material is to assume, explicitly or implicitly that there is. The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy involves this mistake. That earlier phenomena correlated with later phenomena are of needs causes of the later phenomena is an argumentative leap that many have found almost impossible to avoid. There may be no causal relation at all. Or the correlation may be accounted for by a common cause. Falling barometric pressure is correlated with storms but neither causes the other. Atmospheric conditions are responsible for both.

    Sections 3 and 4: Experiments, Tests and Evaluation

    Review Experimentation, Significance and General Assessment

    Here we examine some experimental studies, introducing such notions as that of a blind and a double-blind study. We then turned to formal assessments of the significance of the statistics resulting from those experiments. We examined as well the significance of anecdotal evidence and problems involving the introduction of ad hoc hypotheses.



    Quizzes Forthcoming

    Covering Sections 1 and 2

    Covering Sections 3 and 4

    Comprehensive